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The Popular Belief

Elections = Govt spending = PSU rally. Sounds logical… but is it really that simple?

The Reality Check

PSU stocks do rise before elections— but the real driver is policy signals & government capex.

What History Shows

When results match expectations → Rally continues. When they don’t → Sharp crashes follow.

The 2024 Shock

PSUs rallied 46.6% pre-election… then crashed 22% after results surprised the market.

What Actually Drives PSUs?

Capex spending, earnings growth, valuations, and commodity cycles— not elections alone.

Investor Takeaway

Don’t trade elections. Track budget, orders, earnings & valuations instead.

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